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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.