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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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