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The gravest projected effects of the climate emergency for the UK have been outlined by researchers, including a scorching 4C rise in average temperatures to a 6.5-foot rise in ocean levels. An alternative projection predicts a decline of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt agriculture and power requirements.

Possible Events, Not Forecasts

These impacts, some of which are connected to critical climate thresholds, are considered as unlikely but plausible. The team explained that these projections filled a gap in risk assessment that had left the UK not ready for extreme outcomes.

"The worst-case scenarios we have detailed are not forecasts, but they are plausible," commented the lead researcher who oversaw the study. "The nation has been planning without the methods to test against extreme possibilities. We've now given policymakers what they need to get ready for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but must not overlook."

A Suite of Severe Conditions Possibilities

A second set of dire projections sets out the potential extent of harsh climate between now and the close of the 2100s. These indicate that temperatures could soar in certain periods by up to 6C higher than the norm, while precipitation could be triple normal levels.

The probability of the extreme scenarios happening cannot be precisely determined due to uncertainty about what measures will be implemented to combat global heating and how the climate system will respond. This analysis was likened to security threat evaluations or stress tests for the banking sector.

Major Scenario Details

• Four-Degree Warming: Worldwide averages soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if international cooperation collapses or if powerful amplifying effects like the Amazon basin dying unleash its vast reserves of carbon. This would result in severe and lengthy heatwaves and droughts plaguing the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A critical sea current, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is weakening and becoming unstable due to ocean warming. A full shutdown beginning in 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Farming would struggle enormously and freshwater availability would be completely altered," noted Arnell.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if polar ice in the polar regions disintegrate quickly, flooding low-lying areas. Unlike the other scenarios, this risk is already known by coastal engineers.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is drastically reduced. This paradoxical outcome occurs because aerosol particles from burning coal scatter sunlight from reaching the ground.

Preparing for the Unthinkable

These dire projections could be used to inform the building of critical national infrastructure, including housing developments, power generation facilities and flood defences. Awareness of these future hazards could also speed the transition to reduce carbon pollution.

The analysis developed the severe projections using a combination of observed and historical experience, digital projections and climate physics. The scenarios omit potential global problems such as the devastation of food supplies and increased conflict.

The project was initiated as part of a official climate resilience programme. Independent analyses have cautioned that insufficient focus was being given to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK must "prepare for two degrees of warming" and assess the risks for four degrees. Earlier government strategies have been labeled being "inadequate" by environmental groups.

An official statement noted: "The climate emergency is at the heart of this government’s agenda, both adapting for the future and becoming a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is resilient for the effects."