A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
